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Currency exchange rates, or foreign exchange rates, between two countries are affected by various factors ranging from interest rates to inflation, trading activities, and political and economic stability. They are like the ocean tides, ever-changing and influenced by countless currents. Similar variables impact the US dollar (USD) to Philippine peso (PHP) exchange rates, which are crucial for everyone involved in currency exchange, including foreign traders, tourists, and Overseas Filipino workers (OFWs). This article identifies and analyzes these variables. It also aims at helping you understand how to get the best rate when converting US dollars to Philippine pesos.
Before we look at the factors impacting exchange rates, it is important to understand that in currency markets, one man's meat is another man's poison. When one currency appreciates (becomes stronger) vis-à-vis another, the second currency depreciates (becomes weaker). In this process, individuals stand to lose or gain, depending upon the currency they earn in and the nature of their transactions.
For a better understanding let's look at an example. If the USD becomes stronger vis-à-vis the Philippines Peso (you can get 58 pesos per dollar instead of 57), it is good for Filipino immigrants living in the US, sending money home to their loved ones. This is because the US dollars they transfer, get exchanged for more pesos in the Philippines. Their family gets more money from the transfer. However, if the Philippine Peso becomes stronger vis-à-vis the USD (you can get 1 dollar for 57 pesos instead of 58 pesos), the income of families of Overseas Filipino Workers drops.
Now that you understand how exchange rate movements impact remittances, let's look at the factors that influence exchange rates. They may seem complicated, but they are actually not.
One of the most important factors is inflation. Simply speaking, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy, which means the purchasing power of money decreases over time. A country with low inflation tends to have a stronger currency, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. In the Philippines, overall inflation eased to 2.1 percent in February 2025 from 3.4 percent in February 2024.
A stronger currency implies that 1 USD will now be able to buy less local currency. If you are an Overseas Filipino Worker sending money home, the amount of money your family receives in pesos will be less. However, for the Philippine economy, it would signal cheaper imports. So, what may be good for the economy may not always be good for the families of migrant workers.
Higher interest rates provide higher returns to lenders, attracting more foreign capital into the country. This, in turn, enhances the demand for the local currency, thereby strengthening it against the US dollar. The Central Bank of the Philippines surprised the market by keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75% during its February 2025 monetary policy meeting.[1] The central bank is expected to lower interest rates in the coming months. Maintaining a high interest rate regime will sustain the strength of the peso, but it will have a negative impact on remittances. In effect, less money in the hands of families of Overseas Filipino Workers.
What is current account deficit? A deficit in the current account indicates that a country spends more on imports than it earns from exports, leading to a decrease in the demand for its currency and thus a weaker exchange rate. Imports mean money flows out of the country to the country from where the commodity or service is purchased, while exports mean the country earns money by selling commodities or services to other countries.
The Philippines has seen a deteriorating overall balance of payments since October 2024, characterized by a widening current account deficit, weak foreign direct investment (FDI), and stagnant personal remittance inflows, thus weakening the peso against the US dollar due to lower demand. A weakening Peso would help migrant workers in the US send more money home to families in the Philippines, as each dollar earned will convert into a higher number of pesos!
Usually a healthy economic performance translates into a stronger currency. The Philippine economy grew by 5.6% in 2024, driven by growth in the services and industry sectors. Economists expect the GDP growth rate to be at least 6.5%, spurred by both global and domestic factors. This augurs well for a strong peso.
A stable political environment coupled with a strong economy attracts foreign investment, creating demand for the peso and, in the process, strengthening it. The recent arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte for alleged crimes against humanity has sparked concerns about its potential impact on the upcoming midterm elections in the Philippines. Although the arrest has not directly affected the peso, it has resulted in a decline in investor confidence, causing a lowering of foreign investment in the Philippines, which in turn lowers the demand for the peso.
Apart from political stability, a thriving stock market can attract foreign investors and strengthen the currency. However, in recent times, the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte and uncertainty about the trade war with the US following Donald Trump's election victory have caused a decrease in foreign money inflow into the Philippine equity market. This has decreased the demand for the peso and led to its weakness against the US dollar.
As such, for the USD-PHP exchange rate, it has been a mixed bag of positive and negative factors.
Every year, thousands of people send money to and from the Philippines. Countless Overseas Filipino Workers and Philippine immigrants sending money to their loved ones try to look for ways to maximize their remittances from the US to the Philippines. Now that you understand how exchange rates work, let's look at how you can leverage this knowledge to get the best rate every time.
Here are some of the several ways to maximize your returns when converting USD to PHP:
If you engage in international trade, remember that skillful navigation of fluctuations in currency mitigates risks and unveils opportunities to optimize profit.
USD-to-PHP will see heightened volatility around the release of US economic data or shifts in global commodity prices. Most forecasts state that the USD to PHP exchange rate will remain within ₱55 to ₱60 for 1 USD. This Philippine Peso forecast is subject to the domestic inflation rate, the global economic environment, and market condition shifts.
In conclusion, once you are armed with information about what determines the USD-to-PHP conversion rate and how you can maximize your returns, you can send money home more confidently. Remember to compare the rates offered by various remittance firms and ensure your money reaches your family in the most cost-effective manner!
The USD to PHP hit a record high of 60.66 in November 2024, driven by soaring demand for the US dollar as a safe haven amid Russia-Ukraine tensions. A strong US economic outlook further bolstered the dollar, while the Philippines struggled with a current account deficit due to rising import costs.
The dollar's strength stems from robust US growth expectations and global tensions, making it a go-to safe-haven currency. Anticipated protectionist policies under Trump, including tariffs, could fuel US inflation, prompting the Fed to maintain high interest rates, further strengthening the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' cautious interest rate cuts, aimed at supporting economic growth while managing inflation risks, have widened the interest rate differential with the US, adding more pressure on the peso.
The exchange rate for $100 US dollar in the Philippines is 5,721.89 pesos. This rate may vary slightly depending on the remittance agency. For example, the rate given by Wise today is 5,748.50 pesos for USD 100. Revolut, another remittance firm, is offering an exchange rate of 5,719.3 pesos. Western Union's rate is substantially higher at 5,830.9 pesos, while Paytm is offering 5,772.96 pesos.
The best time to trade USD/PHP is between 12:00 and 15:00 GMT when the market is most liquid. Weekends tend to see higher USD value because foreign currency cash flows slow down. So, it may be a good idea to convert US dollars to pesos on weekends or whenever the former is stronger.
Banks and credit unions are often the cheapest places to exchange currency before a trip, especially if you're an account holder. Major banks typically offer currency exchange services at lower fees than currency exchange kiosks, and some banks may even waive fees for premium account holders.
Mid-month transfers help you avoid the rush during the last five days and the first ten days of each month, when banks and transfer services are busiest. This means you could benefit from lower fees and faster processing times.
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