RBI's Promotion of Indian Rupee for Global Trade: Impact on USD to INR Rate?

Brexit’s impact on remittance has been felt throughout the world. Last year, migrant workers in the UK sent home an approximate $24.9bn making it the fourth-largest source of remittances in the world. This year, the World Bank reported that the stirling has shrunk to 14.6 per cent and 13.2 per cent against the dollar and euro respectively. This means that people back home are receiving less for their money. The savings of migrant workers are thousands of euros less than they used to be before the Brexit vote. A weak pound means a drop in remittances, with migrants working harder and sacrificing other savings to make up for that decline.Impact of Brexit on Remittance-Receiving CountriesThe repercussions go way beyond individuals and families having to tighten their belts. The native countries of these recipients suffer, too. For 25 countries, remittances provides more than 10% of their GDP.Eastern EuropePoland, Hungary, Latvia, Slovakia, Czech Republic and other so-called EU8 countries that joined the EU in 2004 have become the second largest recipients of remittance flow from the U.K. after Germany. Remittance makes up between 3-6 per cent of GDP for many of these nations.In Hungary, the Magyar Nemzet reported that the GBP declined in value roughly HUF 70 since the UK voted to leave the European Union in June, and by HUF 100 since last November. Further deviation was expected by the end of this year. Remittances make up about USD 3.6 billion, or three percent of the total GDP of Hungary's economy, according to a report in Hungarian business daily Világgazdaság. In 2015, Time Magazine reported that Hungarians in the UK send back an annual average of USD 7,700 per economic migrant. The result could be several billions of forints in losses, according to the Magyar Nemzet report.Other Regions and Developing CountriesNigeria, India and Pakistan list among the top three countries that receive remittance from Britain. In 2015, Nigeria received almost $4 billion, India received $3.6 billion and Pakistan just over $1 billion. Each of these regions have fragile economies, and millions of people who depend heavily on remittance of overseas workers for support. Each has now have to had to acclimate themselves to a devalued pound and have come to expect a lot less than they used to.Although other countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal received less remittance from Britain than India, their more fragile economies make them more dependent on the remittance for substance. Respectively, remittance from UK makes up about 8.5 per cent, 7 per cent and 29 per cent of each of these countries GDP, respectively.In countries such as these, remittance pays for education, startups and healthcare. It, also, lifts families and communities out of poverty and spurs development. Kenya is another example of a region that lost millions of dollars in remittance, according to the UK-based think tank Overseas Development Institute (ODI) in September.The list of countries that suffered because of Britain’s devalued currency continues.The Future?Some experts believe that the fall of the stirling will prompt more migrant workers to leave Britain and fewer to move there. Jonathan Portes, an economist at the UK’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research adds that migrant workers may feel less welcomed making them less likely to stay and more likely to tell their friends to keep away.Other research by the UK’s Department for Work and Pensions found that many migrant workers in Britain relocated to healthier economies with stronger currencies during the 2007-09 financial crisis. Experts say that more migrant workers are likely to follow that pattern now.In short, the Center for Global Development predicts a dreary next two years where the UK economy may stagnate leading to a recession that will, further, lower the value of remittances.

The Indian Rupee has closed at a 20-week low against the US dollar. Paired with the unexpected outcome of the US presidential election this past week, the main reasons for dragging the rupee down can be accredited to the strike on black money via demonetization of high-value currency notes and weak industrial output. The US currency, in turn, has strengthened based on speculations that the policies of the US President-elect Donald Trump would be inflationary and lead to a rise in the interest rates, thus impacting foreign money flow to emerging countries like India.Foreign investors withdrew over Rs. 2,350 crore from the stock markets as the US-backed assets are looking more attractive and as a result, the economy is expected to improve in the coming quarters.According to India ratings, the sudden decline in money supply and a simultaneous increase in bank deposits - due to withdrawal of 500 and 1000 rupee notes - will adversely impact consumption demand in the economy. This, coupled with the depreciation of real estate, construction and informal sectors, will further weaken the rupee in the upcoming months. It is very much possible in the upcoming months, as well as even forecasted by many agencies, that US Dollars will become stronger against Indian Rupees. All this means is that the spending power of the NRIs will increase, leading to a rise in the remittance flow to India.Compare. Save. Send Money Home Wisely.TODAY'S BEST RATE USD to INRAdditional ReadingHow will India's Currency Ban Affect NRIs in the USA?How India's currency ban of Rs. 500 & Rs.1000 will affect NRIs?How much Indian Rupees can one carry to India?

It was a shocking, unforeseen turn of events when the Indian government banned the Rs. 500  & Rs. 1000 notes overnight, and simultaneously, the United States elected the new president. With the Indian government scheme banning the Rs. 500 & Rs. 1000 notes in India, many people and businesses are to be affected, especially those operating on cash or undeclared money also known as "black money." With this move, black money holders are left with just two options - either route this money through banks, declare it to be their income, and pay taxes on it, or they burn their stashed notes. This basically means that money will stop flowing as cash, and most of it will be treated as tax-paid income also known as "white money." Thus, the buying power of a person holding tax-paid money will be stronger than those who hold black money.There are 3 ways NRIs will be affected by the currency ban:Real EstateThe real estate market in India will be one of the most heavily affected by the move to ban currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000. This market would crash slowly but is also expected to recover quickly. The market may not favor the seller at this point since very few people have tax-paid money to invest. It is surely a boon to any buyer who will be able to purchase at an affordable rate, however buyers will have to use tax-paid money in order to acquire properties in India. In this equation, the real estate market is expected to drop since the buying power of Indians in India will drastically weaken. On the flipside, the NRIs in the USA will have stronger purchasing power for Indian property as they will possess much more tax-paid cash flow, and the affordability of 1 USD at Rs. 68 will allow NRIs to obtain real-estate much more easily. Congruently, NRIs will have more power to acquire real-estate in the U.S. as the U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate considering the present scenario of eradicating black money.New US PresidencyWith the new presidency in the U.S., one of the first things he has vowed to focus on at the inception of his presidency is immigration reform. By imposing strict immigration policies on legal immigration processes in order to keep it within "historic norms" and increasing prevailing wages for H-1B visa holders, there is a high possibility in employers reducing the number of skilled migrant workers. Immigration reform could also mean a delay in the immigration process for those waiting on permanent residency or citizenship. Though it is too early to conclude anything, it is certain that the cash flow from NRIs in the U.S. to India will begin to increase. This also means that the remittance industry will move to newer heights with NRIs sending more money overseas.Dollar to Rupee EconomicsDue to the government's efforts and objective on eradicating black money from India, the currency in circulation may decline substantially if scrutiny deters people with unaccounted cash from exchanging or depositing money. However, with higher deposits to the currency ratio, the increase in money might mitigate the impact on overall money supply. If the money supply declines temporarily, it may lead to a deflation on the economy. In the long run, this can mean the rupee may get stronger, and the spending power of NRIs holding dollar accounts would drastically increase, in turn, increasing the remittance flow to the USA.TODAY'S BEST RATE USD to INRDisclaimer:  The information represented above is our views on the present scenario of how Currency bans will affect the remittance and NRIs in the USA. The authenticity and accuracy of the article is not guaranteed. Additional ReadingHow India's currency ban of Rs. 500 & Rs.1000 will affect NRIs?