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The Indian rupee (INR) hit a record low against the US dollar on March 7 amid the sharp surge in global crude oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the continued withdrawal of foreign investments (FIIs).
The partially convertible rupee (restrictions on certain capital account transactions) fell to INR 75.98 for 1 USD, its weakest level ever. The previous record low of the rupee against the US dollar was 76.91 in April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Today's USD to INR stands at 75.98 (at the time of writing).
The INR to USD exchange rate is influenced by a combination of factors. In the foreign currency market, the value of a currency is controlled by the basic economic concept of supply and demand.
The exchange rate is the value of one currency in terms of another currency (for example, 1 USD to INR today is 75.54). A currency with more demand has a higher value.
The exchange rate between two currencies is always changing depending on the market conditions. This is called a floating exchange rate, where the currency value of a country is determined by the foreign exchange market based on supply and demand relative to other countries currencies.
If you are looking to send money online abroad, you have to take dollar rupee exchange rates into consideration since it will determine how much money your recipient will receive when it finally arrives in the destination country via USD to INR or INR to USD conversion.
This is because online money transfer USD to INR exchange rates fluctuate depending on the market. To get the best deal for your money, it is best to time your money transfer when the rate reaches its desired rate. Subscribe to CompareRemit USD to INR exchange rate alerts to get notified of the best rates.
Most banks and money transfer specialists do not offer interbank exchange rates or mid-market (the ones you see on Google). Each offers its exchange rates. The difference in the rates is how they make money.
If you're looking for how to transfer INR to USD, you can compare banks and various money transfer companies to find out what the INR to USD exchange rate is today before making your transfer along with how to calculate INR to USD.
The best ways to send money from India to the USA should offer you the best USD/INR exchange rate.
India has a floating exchange system (market-determined). However, the Indian rupee is a partially convertible currency whereby some important restrictions are put in place for higher amounts, and some transactions are prohibited or require approval.
No single authority or institution of a country has little or no control over the value of the currency, especially its demand. The demand for a currency is influenced by many factors such as fiscal and monetary policies of the country, inflation rate, trade, political and economic situations of the country, etc.
Although the central bank of the respective country can intervene whenever the currency destabilizes. This is done by adjusting the supply of the currency, among other measures.
For instance, the Reserve Bank of India maintains a US dollar reserve to ensure stability in the dollar rupee exchange rate. When the demand for the US dollar rises, the dollar value appreciates with respect to the rupee. In response to this, RBI would inject US dollars into the market from its reserve to meet the demands and thus bring down the rising value of the dollar currency.
But overall, it is the demand of a particular country that sets its value.
Expert economics expects the volatility in the value of the rupee to remain high. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened to prevent the sharp moves in the rupee by selling dollars via state-run banks. Up to $1.5 billion have been estimated to be sold in the spot market to curb the volatility soon after the rupee hit its lowest level.
Several factors are at play for why USD to INR is increasing today. Discussed following are the major factors causing the depreciation of the rupee against the USD.
Global crude oil prices soared to $139 a barrel, more than 6%, reaching their highest since the 2008 global financial crisis on March 7 after the United States and European allies considered a Russian oil import ban.
India is the world's third-largest importer of crude oil, importing close to 80% of its fuel requirements. This means INR is very sensitive to rising oil prices. It can potentially skyrocket India's import bills and thus a widening current account deficit. A higher current account deficit means a weakened rupee which further increases inflationary expectations prompting foreign investors to sell more Indian assets.
The local equities plummeted by over 2.5%, about $1 billion on March 7. In the first three months of the calendar year, overseas investors withdrew a net of $12.3 billion in local investments, including debt and equities. According to the National Securities Depository Ltd, about $8.5 billion went out in February and the 1st week of March.
The slower portfolio flows could also put pressure on the balance of payments.
Separately, the uncertainty over the initial share sale of India's largest state-run insurer Life Insurance Corporation of India, worsens the fall in the investment in Indian equities. Analysts estimated that if the sale had occurred, it would have raked in $5 billion-$ 6 billion of foreign investments, supporting the rupee.
Geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine seem to be far from over, leading to a stronger dollar index and pushing crude oil prices even higher. This will greatly impact India's fiscal math.
In the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, all emerging market currencies are set to lose against the dollar and the pound/euro as global investors seek the safety of dollar-backed assets. With forex reserves at $631.53 billion by early March, traders feel it has enough strength to forestall a much sharper fall in the currency. However, the increasing pressure on the rupee has the potential to upset India's fiscal math, but it is expected to calm down, as per expert currency analysts. We will have to keep an eye on the dollar rupee exchange rate and if the rupee continues to fall amid global crisis.
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